Latest Poll shows Trump Beating Hillary 67% to 19% – Oh, you haven’t heard about that Poll yet? I predict Trump shall become the 45th President by Beating Hillary in a 45 State Winning Landslide! (read below article by Bill Wilson):
Do not be deceived: What the polls say
One of my favorite Bible verses is a warning from Jesus Christ concerning the latter days. It’s found in Matthew 24:4 and says, “Take heed that no man deceive you.” Saying that in the last days, perilous times shall come, the Apostle Paul echoes such a warning in 2 Timothy 3:13, “But evil men and seducers shall wax worse and worse, deceiving and being deceived.” Deception is key to taking well-intended people off the track of what is right and good. To combat deception, we need discernment, which is found in the Holy Scriptures and under the guidance of the Holy Spirit. We need a lot of wisdom to discern these days. Those wishing to deceive often do it by trying to co-op your support through peer pressure.
Have you noticed the way the media tries to ply your opinion? For example, from now to election day, various media will be conducting their own polls to show you what America is thinking. Take heed that they do not deceive you. ABC, MSNBC, CBS, Washington Post, LA Times, Chicago Tribune, New York Times-all of these and more will be conducting their “polls” to show you how America will vote on election day. Take them with a grain of salt because just as these outlets’ stories are biased and passed off as unbiased news, so too, are their polls. Their sampling practices are weighted toward their bias. I know this from my days in politics.
When running a large political campaign, polling data is imperative. Accurate polling data can mean the difference between winning and losing in a tight race. It can give you trends, messaging guidance, issues, demographics and a whole lot more. But it has to be accurate or your entire campaign will be off. So politicians do not use media polls. They hire a polling company to conduct an accurate poll based on a scientifically drawn, unbiased sampling of the voters. The media, admittedly weighs their samplings toward a Democratic bias because they draw more voters from the Democratic voting base. Also, online polls are suspect because it is difficult to verify who is actually giving the information and how many times they are giving it.
Constitution.com reports: “Media polls are driven by the desire to achieve a certain outcome. That is why you think Hillary is leading Trump by 10 points. If you were paying attention, one of these polls had Hillary up by 15 points before the GOP convention. After the convention, Trump was up 15 points, a 30% jump! Statistically impossible. After the democrat convention, Hillary was up 10 points, a 25% swing. Again, can’t happen. The media is jerking our chain. DO NOT believe them. The only polls that can be believed are internal polls that are rarely made public.” A truly statistically balanced poll taken by Constitution.com paints a totally different picture-Trump 67%; Clinton 19%; Undecided 13%. Interesting, right?
Have a Blessed and Powerful Day!
August 16, 2016 at 3:43 pm
Wide poll swings before September are not only possible, they are historically typical. As much as 1/3 of voters don’t pay significant attention to the primaries or conventions. That have busy lives, and concentrate upon family and work until it’s nearly time to vote. Polls themselves are a measurement of public reaction. They don’t drive results. But they are usually predictive within a month of Election day. Sometimes campaigns hold stuff back, but October surprises haven’t influenced the direction of national races more than a few percentage points.
I don’t disbelieve the latest polls showing Clinton leading in swing states. They reflect how people feel about current news stories, many of which have been about one or another unforced error by Mr. Trump. These are reactions by those who follow politics more closely than busy family folk. The polls could still change, but time is running out for re-sets, and another month of polls in the current direction would constitute an irreversible trend toward electing Clinton.
James D. Alderdice
August 16, 2016 at 5:52 pm
That is conventional thinking, but nothing this Election has been conventional. The Polls that show Hillary ahead are not taking into account how fed-up people are with Obama & Hillary! No one is going to vote for Hillary, except a small handful of God haters. Everyone, on the other hand, is going to Vote Trump! I stand by my prediction that Trump will Win 45 out of 50 States (or is it 57 States as Obama said?) God Bless America! We’re back baby!
August 16, 2016 at 5:57 pm
And I will wait for October polls before I make any predictions, conventional fan of mathematics that I am. Thank you for the exchange of ideas.